The Future of International Order: Nuclear Balance, AI Technology, and Cyberspace
From Westphalia to AI: What Lies Ahead for the Global Order in the Digital Age?
(This article is a review of Henry Kissinger’s book, Henry Kissinger on World Order (2014).)
The Birth of Modern International Political Order: The Thirty Years' War and the Treaty of Westphalia
The international political order we speak of today refers to a system in which sovereign states engage in building a pluralistic framework to address global issues. This concept of sovereignty was first established in the Treaty of Westphalia, which concluded the Thirty Years' War (1618–1648). By formally recognizing territorial sovereignty, this treaty solidified the state as the fundamental unit of international politics.
Of course, different regions, such as China and the Islamic world, had also developed their own historical and cultural order. However, in today’s global stage, the nation-state is generally perceived as a cohesive entity, exerting its voice in world affairs and analyzed as a key unit in academia.
Balance of Power and International Order
One of the most crucial concepts in modern international order is the balance of power (BOP). This principle ensures that no single state or coalition can dominate others unchecked, thereby maintaining equilibrium. While the balance of power does not entirely prevent wars, it serves as a mechanism to limit their scale and reduce the likelihood of successful challenges to the international order.
Although power dynamics in international politics are inevitable, history has shown that order cannot be sustained by force alone. It must also be built upon shared experiences and values among nations. The balance of power is not merely about counteracting threats—it also entails finding points of partnership within competitive relationships.
The United States emerged as a global superpower after World War II, entering a bipolar confrontation with the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Committed to spreading the values of freedom, democracy, and market capitalism, the U.S. engaged in various conflicts, including the Korean War and the Vietnam War, experiencing the grim realities of war firsthand. After the Cold War, the Gulf War and post-9/11 conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq further tested its role as a global leader. Despite its ambition to shape international order through its foreign policy, reality often diverged from its ideals. This tension between idealism and realism has remained a defining dilemma in international relations.
Nuclear Weapons and the Global Order
The advent of nuclear weapons ushered in a new era in international order. As J. Robert Oppenheimer, the father of the atomic bomb, quoted from the Bhagavad Gita, "Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds." Nuclear weapons, with their unparalleled destructive power, placed humanity on the precipice of survival and annihilation.
While an ideal scenario would involve all nuclear-armed nations maintaining mutual deterrence without resorting to use, reality has been shaped by a nuclear hierarchy. Initially, nuclear capabilities were concentrated within the UN Security Council's permanent members—the United States, the Soviet Union (now Russia), the United Kingdom, France, and China. Over time, additional states, including Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea, either developed or were suspected of possessing nuclear weapons outside the framework of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
A paradox emerges: nations armed with nuclear weapons are often deterred from direct conflict with one another. The logic is simple—if one nuclear power launches an attack, the targeted nation has the capability to retaliate, leading to mutual destruction. Thankfully, since the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, nuclear weapons have not been used in active warfare. Yet, the looming possibility of their deployment remains a persistent existential threat to humanity.
AI, Cyberspace, and the Future of Global Order
Unlike the past, where international order was shaped by religion or reason, today’s world is defined by science and technology. The unprecedented growth of computing and telecommunications has transformed global interactions, with cyberspace emerging as a new battlefield where states engage in intelligence warfare and digital disruptions.
Although the United States' dominance in international affairs has slightly diminished, it still maintains superior military, economic, and technological power compared to China. However, in the realm of cyberspace, China, Russia, and North Korea have demonstrated significant technological prowess. China, in particular, is rapidly closing the gap with the U.S. in AI research, patents, and applications. In fields such as facial recognition, some argue that China has already surpassed the U.S.
Digital technologies, such as social media, have played a dual role in global affairs. They have helped democratize movements, as seen during the Arab Spring, but have also been exploited by authoritarian regimes to surveil and control their citizens. This raises a crucial question: How can we mitigate the hidden risks that accompany technological advancement? This issue extends beyond national strategies—no single state can unilaterally resolve these challenges.
Will AI Shape a New Balance of Power?
Could AI and cybersecurity evolve into a new form of mutual deterrence, akin to the nuclear balance? Could dominant Big Tech companies, armed with AI-driven capabilities, become independent actors in shaping global governance, challenging the traditional role of states?
These questions prompt deeper reflections on the structure of the international order in the age of AI and digital technology.
What Lies Ahead?
At this historical juncture, what kind of balance of power should we pursue? What values should we uphold in shaping the future international order? Can the U.S. and China maintain a pragmatic partnership, recognizing each other’s strategic interests? Will the post-World War II multilateral institutions, such as the United Nations, remain effective in managing global crises? How will ongoing conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Palestine conflict, be resolved? These pressing questions demand urgent attention.
As the two dominant players in global politics, the U.S. and China bear a profound responsibility in upholding international order. Their competition in technology, economy, and security is inevitable, yet mutual recognition and coexistence remain essential. Establishing and reaffirming their respective red lines in political, economic, and military domains is crucial in preventing catastrophic conflicts.
The role of Big Tech also warrants scrutiny. If AI algorithms and data are monopolized by a handful of corporations, should these companies be regarded as global actors in their own right, shaping geopolitical landscapes alongside nation-states? Likewise, civil society and grassroots communities must play an active role in addressing these concerns, as they are the ones most affected by technological changes.
The future of global order may not promise peace, but it can still serve as a buffer against the worst excesses of war and chaos. By fostering diplomatic engagement, responsible governance, and ethical technological development, we may yet find a path forward in this age of transformation.
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